The Future of Work: It’s a Saucerful of Secrets

The future of work is a mystery not a puzzle. Not only don’t we have enough information about the future of work, but we may not even have the right set of tools to help us frame the problem correctly. So, we are uncertain. Forecasts of the future that generate fear (e.g. x number of jobs will be lost by x year) or forecasts that ask to invest in future-proofing the workforce (every child needs digital skills) are equally likely to be wrong. Our forecasts are either too vague or too specific. We need to think about the issues and pay attention to the boundaries where people, work, organisation and technology are already adapting.

High Hopes

Today’s disruption is that work we have considered for all time as exclusively the domain of humans—reasoning, judgement, learning and foresight—now appears to be within the grasp of technology. This challenges us to consider what it is we will contribute to work and organisation. The self-interested, short-term conversations about the future of work play to our many fears. There are, however, two long term questions that arise from new technologies that deserve attention.

Pigs on the Wing

The history of change management is replete with theories and models that have been given an existence and permanence that is divorced from reality. While originally grounded in good research these models develop into grossly over-simplified process maps that give a sense of false confidence to managers that they are in control. The models become pigs on the wing.

The Future's Uncertain

If there is one area that leaders need to be thinking forward on all the time it is the interaction between people, work and organisation. There is real gravity in the way these three elements co-evolve through time. Donald Schon said it best when he coined the term ‘dynamic conservatism’, which he described as the tendency of organisations to ‘fight to stay the same’. Organisations don’t go on the ‘change journey’ willingly. So, what does it mean for an organisation transform?

Welcome to the Machine

Our work and organisations are also not what they once were. The structures and functions of the machine are changing. Those of us who are now deep in the machine need to understand this. Work, work relationships and how we organise are adapting to new circumstances. What do new entrants need to know in order to be successful in a machine that is in transition?

The Thin Ice of Modern Life

We live as if our only task was precisely to have relationships with people. To sustain a relationship, I need to exercise restraint, demonstrate empathy, and show tolerance. Camus was a strong critic of leaping to extremes—of taking extreme positions in order to justify our sense of how the world works or how we would like it to work.

Obscured by Clouds

Engaging with continuity and gaps, the regular and irregular, and the local and global through imagination has been most important for me in seeing how change flows. The clouds will always obscure our vision. Assuming the clouds away doesn’t work. They always reappear.